MLB Futures: There’s significant value in these three World Series contenders
Written by: Joe Spano
Success in sports wagering is dependent on two factors: one is obvious, and that is that you must pick winners; the other is a little more nuanced, and that is isolating value. Too often, sports bettors forsake focusing on making good value bets and, as a result, end up on the losing side in the long run.
While the Atlanta Braves are clearly the best team in baseball at this moment, they do not present very good value as the favorite to win the Fall Classic at between +325 and +350. The same can be said for the Dodgers, who despite pushing their NL West lead to four games, have some significant flaws that cast doubt over a deep run in October, and at somewhere between +430 and +500 to win it all, they don’t present much value to bettors. An even worse play would be the Rays at somewhere between +500 and +600. Tampa Bay is no longer in first place in the AL East, and due to injury, lacks the front-line starting pitching to win a championship.
The next three betting favorites in the market present excellent value due to a combination of their current positions in the standings, the construction of their rosters for both regular and postseason success, and the likelihood that they will be among the biggest winners at this year’s trade deadline. You can rest assured that you will not be able to get odds this good on these three teams after Aug. 1, so now is the time to move on these World Series Contenders:
Houston Astros +900 to win the World Series (BetMGM):
It has been anything but smooth sailing for the Astros in their quest to defend their World Series crown. They have been beset by injuries and have had key pieces from last season’s championship team underperform. Yet, despite all that, they find themselves just three games behind Texas for the top spot in the AL West heading into Monday night’s series opener with those Rangers. If the recent past has shown us anything, it’s that owner Jim Crane will empower general manager Dana Brown to do what it takes to add the pieces necessary to improve this roster for the stretch run and, more importantly, the postseason. Look for the Astros to add another front-of-the-rotation starter at the deadline and possibly a quality lower-leverage reliever for the pen. Combine that with the return of Yordan Alvarez to the lineup in late July, the wealth of postseason experience up and down this roster, and the guiding hand of manager Dusty Baker and you have a team in prime position to repeat as world champions and that is now suddenly one of the three betting favorites to win the World Series.
Texas Rangers +1100 to win the World Series (DraftKings):
The Rangers are already one of the best teams in Major League Baseball, but they are incredibly undervalued by both the public and oddsmakers. From top to bottom, Texas can go toe-to-toe with the Braves for the league’s best and most balanced lineup. Despite the loss of Jacob DeGrom to Tommy John surgery and uneven seasons from Martín Pérez and Andrew Heaney, the Rangers have fielded one of the top starting rotations in all of baseball, led by All-Star Nathan Eovaldi. Their weak underbelly this season has been the bullpen, which ranks in the bottom quarter of the league – but the Rangers’ relief corps has quietly improved as the season has progressed, and Texas has already taken measures to fortify this group by adding Aroldis Chapman a few weeks ago. Rangers ownership and general manager Chris Young have been among baseball’s most aggressive organizations the last couple of years, and with that aggressiveness finally paying off in the win column, don’t look for that approach to change now. Texas is willing to spend money, and they have a well-stocked farm system with the assets necessary to put together the best trade package for any available player. The Rangers will likely add multiple high-leverage relievers, and don’t be shocked if they add one of the top starting pitchers available to the front of the rotation to ensure that they send a top starter to the hill every day down the stretch and throughout their playoff run. If the ultimate trade prize in Shohei Otani becomes available, expect the Rangers to win that sweepstakes and vault into the highest tier of favorites alongside the Braves.
Baltimore Orioles +1700 to win the World Series (BetRivers):
The Orioles have now moved past the Rays and into the top spot in the AL East, yet you can get them at +1700 to win it all. That’s a hell of a bargain! There are reasons for the long odds, among them that Baltimore has an extremely young roster almost entirely devoid of postseason experience. The Orioles do not have the starting pitching in place to make a deep postseason run, and they need help behind their top three relievers, perhaps the best trio in baseball. The worry here is that while Baltimore has the minor-league depth to add to both their bullpen and starting rotation, owner Peter Angelos has never been one to part with assets or spend money in pursuit of a championship. But if Angelos takes the shackles off GM Mike Elias, the Orioles could emerge from the deadline with one of MLB’s three best rosters.